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Variable Probability - Bringing Down The House of FaceBook

Or Why Social Marketing Does Not Work

Firstly, this article discounts viral marketing (which is free). This is when someone signs up to a group on Facebook, or a person discusses your product and you see a big explosion in traffic and sales. The Reason is this is free. Rather I will be comparing Apples to Apples, Social Marketing PAID marketing to Google AdWords.

This is meant to be a thought provoking article, so I will not even use one statistic so I can illustrate a point and you can think about it and make your own conclusion based on my reasoning.

The Nitty Gritty

Okay in “Bringing Down The House” a point is made that statistics can sometimes be variable, like in the famous gameshow where you have three doors. After you choose a door (one of which has a prize and two which do not) the Host (knowing the doors that have prizes) reveals a door without a prize and offers you to switch or stay.

If you stay with your choice, you will lose two out of every three times, if you switch you will only lose one in three times. That is because once the host showed you a case the odds changed

What About Social Marketing

Well the point is when someone goes on to FaceBook they are actually there to do something else, whether it is see how a friend is doing, send a message, or anything else you can do on FaceBook, they are not primarily there to look for a product.

Conversely, when someone types “Red Widget” into Google they are actively looking for Red Widgets, so if you have an ad offering Red Widgets you have a very high likelihood (1 in 20) that someone will click on your listing!

The Odds Have Changed! On FaceBook, there are millions of things any one user can do the chance of them picking your ad are very little, but on AdWords they start off with billions of choices they are changing the odds of picking your ad by limiting their own options by choice!

While you can target people's interests on Social Media advertising, you are not changing the odds of them selecting your add, because they are not ACTIVELY SEEKING YOUR PRODUCT

That's it I hope this is as sensible to you as it seems to me, and believe me there are plenty of stats others have compiled that showcase this all you have to do is Actively Seek them!

If you want to voice your opinion feel free to use the contact form and weigh in, I will be posting all responses as they come in!Contact Page